Predictions for the Mac Tablet

I've been watching the frenzied speculation about Apple's forthcoming tablet computer with great amusement. Everyone is making learned pronouncements about why it will either blow away the competition or fail miserably in the total absence of concrete information. All we know for sure is that various hardware manufacturers and parts suppliers have received orders for something that's small and probably tablet-shaped.

A lot of people think tablets are useless, or at best no real improvement over a traditional laptop with an integrated keyboard. Up to now, that's been true, save for a very limited niche of vertical market applications such as data entry for doctors, shippers, point of sale systems, and the like. Certainly Steve Ballmer's demo of a lackluster HP "slate" computer at CES last week does nothing to make me think that the PC vendors have anything innovative on their road maps. Skepticism over this product category is well-deserved.

Why shouldn't Apple ship a netbook? Because it's not interesting, and it's not especially profitable. All the netbooks I've seen to date have been grossly underpowered, poorly built, and include inferior keyboards that might fit a child's hands, but would be purest agony for a touch typist with normal- to large-sized fingers. Commodity PC vendors are used to low margins, but Apple isn't. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is immaterial; it's the way Apple works.

Apple will only ship a tablet if it can perform well in the tasks for which it was designed, and if they can make money on it. A certain percentage of their user base will buy a tablet regardless of its real functionality, but the engineering and resources needed to build a serious tablet are significant. Apple won't invest that kind of money unless they believe they can recoup the investment. In order to do that, their tablet will have to have some compelling functionality that makes it appealing for a broad audience of prospective buyers.

Let's assume that the rumors are true and that Apple will announce a tablet on January 26 or 27. I'm going to go on record right now with my predictions (and desires) for such a device. Let's see if I can beat the prognosticators. Bearing in mind that there are already millions of iPod Touch and iPhone users out there, I think we can safely assume that the iTablet will have significant functionality beyond what those devices offer.

Physically, I expect the rumors to be largely correct. It will be around 10 inches diagonally, with a wide-screen aspect ratio and a capacitative multitouch display, probably LCD. I think the chances of Apple using OLED are slight, considering how immature that technology is, and the peculiar problems it has with overblown red and orange. Apple has always put a high premium on color matching. Future versions might use Pixel Qi or Mirasol or one of the other novel types of displays that work in sunlight as well as indoor light, but I don't think those vendors are quite ready to ship enough displays to meet what Apple hopes will be significant demand. With luck, the glass will be Corning's Gorilla Glass, which is infinitely more robust than the kind used in the iPhone.

The keyboard will be on-screen. I am ambivalent about whether a physical keyboard (perhaps with an integrated dock) will be an option. On the one hand, it would make the iTablet useful as a smaller substitute for a notebook computer without requiring the user to have miniscule digits to be able to type comfortably. On the other hand, if the iTablet is really in the $700-$1000 price range, it may cannibalize sales of the entry level MacBooks, especially if it's usable as a full-fledged multi-purpose computer. For this reason I'm leaning slightly toward Apple limiting the machine to a glorified iPhone OS with a virtual keyboard, but I hope I'm wrong.

I think there is a small possibility that Apple will also include a touch-sensitive stylus, or at least offer one as an option. Styli are problematic, but they would make the iTablet far more useful for artwork and graphic design, and Apple values those capabilities. That being said, there are significant usability and engineering challenges with styli. A multitouch display must be able to reject all input except that provided by the stylus itself. Ideally the stylus would be pressure and tilt-sensitive, a la the Wacom Cintiq displays, and given the power budget of a portable device it's unlikely that a Wacom-style sensor could be included. Perhaps a rechargeable Bluetooth stylus could be made, with software that disables the multitouch functions when the stylus is in use.

Even if there is no physical stylus, I expect that Apple will provide a means to use your finger as a far-less-precise substitute. Handwriting recognition will probably be there via Inkwell. A finger can certainly be used for handwriting on a ten-inch display. Or a third party software vendor might provide something like Inklet, which is already available for use on the MacBook trackpad.

Connectivity will be familiar: WiFi built in, with 3G as an option. There will be an iPod dock, a sim card slot, volume and mute controls, and a home button. And that's it. As much as users want expandable storage, I don't think Apple will go for it. I expect models with 32 and 64 GB of user storage. If we're lucky, 128 will be the high end. I don't think Apple will include user-expandable storage via an SD card slot, but I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Jobs has certain prejudices against this kind of thing, and I think he will prevail, as usual. This is not what I want, but what I expect.

I think Apple will have built iTablet versions of iWork and perhaps iPhoto. They may even make a new version of MacPaint available. Apple knows that one of its key markets is creative professionals, but they must also realize that basic business applications are an absolute must for a higher-end portable computing device. The iTablet will be able to play music and movies and run iPhone apps, but it must also be able to handle word processing and note taking and spreadsheet functions, too. I expect these apps to be available on the iTunes Store for a lower cost than their Mac-based predecessors. I also expect them to be optimized for use with a touch interface.

Steve Jobs has always been big into education, and I expect the iTablet to be aimed squarely at that market. Thus the iTablet will include apps that are useable in schools. If I were him, I'd provide free versions of dictionaries (in multiple languages), an atlas and internet-enabled gazetteer, a note taking app with handwriting recognition, and a graphing calculator. I expect a number of third-party software vendors to show up touting their iTablet versions of Mathematica, teaching applications, and the like.

I also expect Apple to announce a new technology for viewing print media, with an emphasis on textbooks. A great way to make the iTablet a compelling sale is to make it possible for students to buy e-textbooks instead of having to cart around a heavy backpack full of monstrous physical volumes. Of course, this will only be practical if the battery life of the device is very good, and if it can sustain a very large number of recharges without requiring a battery replacement.

If there is an emphasis on education, I would expect the iTablet to include printing functions. In fact I'd expect its OS to be much more full-featured than the iPhone OS, but with a touch-centered UI. This also leads me to think that a docking station with integrated keyboard and mouse is a reasonable possibility. After all, you can't exactly expect students to key in a book report using a virtual keyboard. If Apple does announce such a device, I expect it to include a physical lock so both the iTablet and the dock can be secured.

I also expect Apple to announce either an e-book store or to demo third-party book-reader apps with in-application purchasing capability that bypasses the iTunes Store. Apple already made this capability available for the iPhone in version 3.0 of the software. Apple may not want to lock itself into a home-grown media reader. There's already a version of Kindle for the iPhone; it doesn't take a big stretch of the imagination to see that they would want to port it to the iTablet.

In any case, the iTablet will be wicked cool. Apple will want to blow all of the other tablet manufacturers into the water, and based on Steve Enballmer's demo of the HP Slate at CES this January, that won't be too hard.

So that's it. I'll post a follow-up message once the iTablet has been revealed to see how wide of the mark my guesses are. :-)